Mark Rountree, National Policy Officer for GOOD
(an abridged version of this opinion piece was first published in the Cape Times on the 18th May 2020)
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Calls for “opening up” are heard from the White House in the USA to the blue house of the DA here in South Africa. Our country implemented an internationally lauded early proactive social distancing and lockdown which has resulted in the Covid19 cases and deaths at mid-May being well below even the best case scenarios predicted 8 weeks ago.
This week the DA’s Chief Whip called for National Parliament to reopen, but the DA Premier of the Western Cape Parliament sits at home in isolation – for the second time – after a member of the media passed away from Covid19 less than a week after a face to face interview with him.
Whilst some may argue that dragging all politicians to Cape Town, South Africa’s Covid19 epicentre, is a good idea, GOOD argues that we should protect all people (even politicians perhaps) with equal measure and certainly not seek to unnecessarily accelerate the spread of the virus.
On Monday, the National Minister for Basic Education is expected to speak to the reopening of schools. GOOD is appealing for the Minister to heed the hard science when evaluating the risks for school workers, teachers, children and their caregivers. This is why.
Last week the Western Cape’s MEC for Education, Debbie Schafer, cited a report from economist Nic Spaull to support school reopenings. DA Fedex Chair Helen Zille tweeted SADTU that teachers should get back to work because the “the latest scientific evidence is that children do not pass the virus to adults.”
Zille quoted Sky News to support her argument, but medical experts from the UK’s Royal College of Paediatrics issued a special statement denouncing such mainstream media statements. The medical experts said that the statements are incorrect and not based on scientific evidence.
During the prolonged Climate Change debate, science was ignored or manipulated by vested interests to benefit the fossil fuel industry. The public and decision makers need to go to the source data for the latest, best available science.
Many studies have confirmed children are less severely affected by the virus – children account for less than 2% of cases from Korea, Spain and Italy. However, a study of 2000 Chinese children who tested positive for Covid19 found that, although 9 out of 10 children were asymptomatic, 2 out of 5 developed asymptomatic pneumonia and more than 1 in 20 children developed severe infections.
Even so, no one is disputing that children are at less risk than adults or the elderly. What must be evaluated is the role of schools in increasing the spread of Covid19 to these more vulnerable groups.
In the days before Covid19, a study of a severe flu outbreak in Russia by a team of international scientists determined that school closures reduce flu infections by one third. This month the journal Science, one of the most reputable peer-reviewed scientific journals, published results indicating the effect of school closures may be up to double for Covid19. Their study noted that “proactive school closures … reduce peak incidence by 40-60%”.
A fortnight ago the World Health Organisation’s technical lead Maria van Kerkhove warned that “There’s no reason to think that children are less susceptible to infection if they’re exposed, and that they can’t transmit.” Virologist Christian Drosten, director of the Virology Institute at Germany’s Charite hospital advised policy makers “against an unlimited reopening of schools and kindergartens in the present situation.”
We of course want children to learn and get our society and communities working normally again, but not by incurring an unnecessary loss of life. The thousands of deaths per day in the USA, Italy, China and the UK should serve as (pardon the pun) sobering examples of not managing the pandemic with the care and seriousness it deserves. Basic income grants may be able to help people survive the economic fallout; they can only do so if the people who need them survive Covid19 itself.
Distance and online learning are far safer, but the majority of homes do not have laptops or internet connections. In January GOOD approached both the Ministers of Basic Education and of Communications to request more school lessons be broadcast on SABC channels. We are pleased that a dedicated education channel has now been launched and hope to see this expanded.
As we debate the merits of asymptomatic infected children coming back to school and the unclear science on child to adult transmissions, we will need to look to other countries and real experts – not Sky News – for guidance. But we must not ignore our own unique context.
Consider this one fact in the application of international Covid19 data: the HIV prevalence rate in South Africa is 45 times higher than the USA and almost 150 times higher than China. Millions of HIV positive South Africans are not on ARVs and about half of these have very low CD4 counts. How many are teachers, school cleaners or caregivers is not known.
When it comes to the safety of frontline – school staff, teachers and caregivers – decision makers should carefully consider the best available science. We are in an unprecedented situation and need to develop solutions that are locally appropriate. The scientists are speaking and we must heed their advice and warnings. GOOD welcomes the governments greater investment in distance learning and recommends that schools should not reopen until frontline workers are protected and caregivers are aware of the additional risks they will incur . Unsubstantiated statements and actions could come at a very heavy cost.
ends
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